Bank Cites Improving Macroeconomic Stability and Private Investment Recovery, but Says Job Creation and Poverty Reduction Remain Major Challenges.
Enugu Media Village (EMV), the Most Updated Online News Platform — October 7, 2026
THE World Bank has raised its forecast for Nigeria’s economic growth in 2026 to 4.3 per cent, citing improving macroeconomic stability, stronger investor confidence and a gradual recovery in private investment.
The revised projection, contained in the Bank’s October 2026 Africa Economic Update, represents an improvement from the estimated 4.0 per cent growth recorded in 2025. The World Bank further projects Nigeria’s economy to expand by 4.4 per cent annually in 2027 and 2028.
The improved outlook follows stronger-than-expected economic performance in the second quarter of 2026. Nigeria’s real Gross Domestic Product grew by 4.43 per cent year-on-year in Q2 2026, compared with 4.23 per cent in the corresponding period of 2025.
Agriculture expanded by 4.39 per cent, while services recorded 4.6 per cent growth. Real oil GDP also increased by 7.3 per cent, although industrial growth moderated compared with the same period last year.
World Bank Warns on Election-Year Spending
Despite the stronger outlook, the World Bank has warned that increased government spending ahead of the 2027 general elections could undermine the economic reform momentum achieved in recent years.
The Bank identified rising pre-election spending, tighter global financial conditions, insecurity, climate-related shocks, disruptions to oil production and the prolonged conflict in the Middle East among the major risks to Nigeria’s economic outlook.
It stressed the importance of sustaining macroeconomic reforms and fiscal discipline as Nigeria approaches the election period, noting that political pressures could make difficult economic adjustments harder to maintain.
Growth Must Translate Into Jobs
The World Bank also cautioned that stronger headline growth alone would not be enough to significantly improve living standards.
Nigeria faces the challenge of absorbing about 3.5 million people entering the labour force annually, while weak job creation and limited entrepreneurial opportunities continue to constrain inclusive economic development.
The Bank said sustained reforms, greater private-sector investment, improved infrastructure, stronger human-capital development and higher productivity would be necessary to convert economic growth into better incomes and more employment opportunities.
Nigeria’s improved macroeconomic position therefore presents an opportunity to deepen reforms while maintaining policies that encourage investment, expand productive sectors and strengthen household welfare.
The World Bank’s latest assessment reinforces the need for Nigeria to consolidate economic stability while ensuring that growth becomes more inclusive and translates into tangible improvements in the lives of citizens.
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